管理复杂性研究进展
随着时代的发展，人类社会又进入了一个崭新的时代：一个经济全球化、新技术与高科技高速发展、知识在社会进步与市场竞争中的作用日益增强并成为关键因素的新时代，一个电子商务、知识经济初现端倪的新时代。新时代的到来，使得管理对象、管理环境、管理目标、组织结构、组织行为等都变得越来越复杂，从而对管理科学的理论与方法提出了新的挑战，原有的管理理论与方法已经难以满足新时代变革带来的新问题对新管理理论与方法的渴求。这意味着新时代的到来催生新的管理理论与方法，于是，拉开了复杂性管理理论研究的序幕。
应当指出的是：管理复杂性的研究是在复杂性科学诞生之后才开始的。复杂性科学是国外20世纪80年代提出的范畴，主要是研究复杂性和复杂系统的科学。复杂性科学作为新近发展起来的一门自量子力学和相对论以来，本世纪自然科学领域中引发的所谓第三次革命的科学，其触角已触及到数理科学、生命科学、地球科学、环境科学以及信息科学等领域，已成为当代科学最活跃的前沿学科之一。它目的虽还处于初创阶段，但已被有些科学家誉为“21世纪的科学”。
一、研究概况
关于复杂性科学的研究，以美国和英国发表的文献居多。而对管理复杂性问题的研究始于20世纪70年代末，因为，从目前笔者所能查到的文献资料来看，最早的论著是美国George Mason大学的Warfield教授于1976年出版的专著：《社会系统：计划、政策与复杂性》，只是在当时没能引起人们足够的重视。后来，在80年代，由于非线性与浑沌理论的“突现”，才使复杂性科学的研究在世界范围内的多种学科里掀起了高潮。
在管理学界，Malaska和Kinnunen(1986)研究发现组织决策能导致存储问题的浑沌、无序和意外的结果；Streufert和Swezey于1986年出版了《复杂性、管理者和组织》一书；Loye和Eisler(1987)研究了社会科学中的浑沌和非均衡现象；Warfield(1990)出版了通过系统设计的方法管理复杂性的著作，提出了通过结构化系统分析处理在复杂环境下有效提高决策效果的系统方法；Richards(1990)研究证实了战略计划存在的浑沌与复杂性；Mosekilde等人(1991)揭示了制造加工过程的管理决策的不稳定性和复杂性；Kiel和Elliott(1992)研究后认为政府预算是一个充满变化的非线性和复杂系统；Kiel和Elliott(1992)研究后谯政府预算是一个充满变化的非线性和复杂系统；Kiel(1993，1994)运用非线性动力学方法发现在政府组织中存在浑沌和“隐序”现象；Comfort(1993)证明了复杂性科学能作为一种模型在自然的或技术的灾难发生期间协调组织内部的活动；Warfield和Cárdenas(1994)提出了交互式管理的理论与方法，为在复杂环境下的决策提供了较为可行的决策分析方法；Thietart和Forgues(1995)研究了浑沌与组织的关系；Kauffman(1995)出版了《浑沌的边缘》一书，认为复杂性存在于浑沌的边缘(the Edge of Chaos)，从进化生物学中引申出了适切性图像(Fitness Landscape0的概念，即进化就是沿着高低不平的图像行进的过程，平缓的图像表示系统运行在有序区域，变化十分剧烈的图像则表示系统运行在无序区域，有起伏但变化并不十分剧烈的图像是最优的进化过程并构成了浑沌的边界，提出了一种协助组织系统避免落入“隐阱”的方法，指出组织会在其独立单元交互作用中解体，发现在种类和数量上交互组织能够达到整体稳定，强调在管理方面各单位间必须保持连续的交流和交互作用；Stacey(1996)研究了组织复杂性与创造性问题，指出组织是复杂的演化系统，并在3种区域中运行，当运行于不稳定区域，无论是长期还是短期，组织的行为都是不可预测的，而当运行于稳定区域，组织的短期行为是可以预测的，若在浑沌的边缘，则组织行为是不可预期的，但是不稳定性会局限于一个有限边界内；Sackmann(1997)研究了组织的文化复杂性问题，指出在新时代，组织文化充满了冲突和复杂性，并从多个层次进行了初步分析；Axlord(1997)研究了组织合作复杂性问题，初步分析了组织合作稳定与不稳定性条件；Holland(1998)出版了《突现：从浑沌走向有序》一书；Flood,Carson(1988，1993)和Gharajedaghi(1999)从系统方法的角度研究了管理浑沌与复杂性的方法。
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附录A 外文翻译－原文部分
Progress in the Research of Complexity in Management Science
With the development of the times, mankind has entered a new era : an economic globalization, the rapid development of new technologies and high-tech, knowledge in social progress and the role of competition in the market and become a key factor in growing the new era, one e-commerce, a new era of the knowledge economy first. New era, making management targets, regulatory environment, management objectives, organizational structure, organizational behaviour have become more complex and therefore to scientific management theory and methods presented new challenges, the original theory and management methods have to change to meet the new era has brought new problems to the new management theory and methods for. This means that a new era of management theory and create new methods, thus marked the beginning of the complexity of management theory study began. It should be noted that : the management complexity of the complexity of scientific research in the beginning after the birth. Complexity science is outside the scope of the 1980s, mainly to study the complexity and complex systems science. Complexity science as a newly developed one door since the theory of relativity and quantum mechanics, in this century, a natural area of the so-called third scientific revolution, its tentacles have touched a few science, life science, earth science, environmental science and information science, and other fields have become the most active in science subjects in the forefront of one. Although it is also in its infancy, but some scientists have been called "the 21st century science." 1, research profiles On the complexity of scientific research to the United States and the United Kingdom are published in the literature. And the complexity of managing the study began in the end of the 70s of the 20th Century, because I can check from the current literature shows that the earliest books of the United States George Mason University Professor Warfield monograph published in 1976 : "social system : plans, policies and complexity" only at the time failed to arouse sufficient attention. Subsequently, in the 1980s, because of nonlinear theory and vocabulary of "highlighting" that has enabled the complexity of the scientific research in the world in a wide range of disciplines within the climax. In the management of academic, Malaska and Kinnunen (1986) study found that organizational decision-making can lead to memory problems confusion, disorderly and unforeseen results ;Streufert and Swezey in 1986 published "complexity, managers and organizations," a book; Loye and Eisler (1987) studied the social sciences and non-balanced sensory phenomenon ;Warfield (1990) published by the system design methodology management complexity works, presented through structured analysis processing in complex environments effectively improve the effectiveness of decision-making systems; Richards (1990) study confirmed the existence of a strategic plan ;Mosekilde confusion and complexity, and others (1991) reveals the manufacturing processes of management decision-making uncertainty and complexity; Kiel and Elliott (1992) is considered one of the government budget changes nonlinear and complex systems ;Kiel and Elliott (1992) study Qiao government budget is a complex and full of change nonlinear system ;Kiel (1993, 1994) found that the use of nonlinear dynamics methods in the organization ought to exist and "hidden disorder" phenomenon ;Comfort (1993) demonstrated the complexity of scientific models can be used as a natural or technological disaster during coordination of the activities within the organization; Warfield and C cancer Martha Crdenas (1994) presented an interactive management theory and methods for decision-making in complex environments to provide a more viable decision-making and analytical methods ;Thietart Forgues (1995) examined the relationship between sensory and organizations; Kauffman (1995) published the "confusion marginal," a book that ought to exist in the complexity of the edge (the NewsEdge of Chaos), derived from evolutionary biology, the relevance of the images (Fitness Landscape0 concept Once evolution is that the images along the road course, the images that remain in the orderly operation of the regional system, change the images are very keen that the system in operation disorderly region, there are ups and downs but the changes are not very dramatic images is the best form of the evolutionary process and the vocabulary of the border, proposed a system to assist organizations to avoid falling into the "hidden pitfall" means that organizations in the disintegration of its independence, interaction modules found in the types and quantity of the world organization to meet overall stability in the management of stress between units must maintain continuous communication and interaction; Stacey (1996) studied the organization and the complexity of the creative problems that organizations are complex evolution of the system, and in three regions of operation, when the operation in the volatile region, whether it is long or short, the organization acts are unpredictable, and when operating in a stable region, the organization of short-term behavior is predictable, If the confusion marginal, organizational behaviour is not expected, but the volatility will be confined to a limited borders ;Sackmann (1997) examined the cultural organizations complexity of the issue, noting that in the new era, the organizational culture of conflict and complexity, and from various levels of the preliminary analysis; Axlord (1997) studied the complexities of organizations,
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